Hurricane IRENE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 5 10 20 25 27
TROP DEPRESSION 4 7 22 27 28 30 28
TROPICAL STORM 65 77 61 55 46 41 41
HURRICANE 30 15 12 8 6 4 4
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 28 14 9 7 5 4 3
HUR CAT 2 2 2 2 X 1 1 X
HUR CAT 3 1 X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 55KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
MONCTON NB 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
ST JOHN NB 34 X 5( 5) 18(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
EASTPORT ME 34 X 11(11) 22(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 30(30) 16(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X 53(53) 14(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X 11(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PORTLAND ME 34 3 66(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
PORTLAND ME 50 X 25(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
PORTLAND ME 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 5 82(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
CONCORD NH 50 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
CONCORD NH 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BOSTON MA 34 14 65(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
BOSTON MA 50 X 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
BOSTON MA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 17 40(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
HYANNIS MA 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 34 20 30(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 33 48(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 1 36(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HARTFORD CT 34 48 44(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
HARTFORD CT 50 2 50(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
HARTFORD CT 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONTAUK POINT 34 56 28(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
MONTAUK POINT 50 5 44(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEW YORK CITY 34 87 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
NEW YORK CITY 50 47 7(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
NEW YORK CITY 64 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NEWARK NJ 34 82 7(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
NEWARK NJ 50 30 8(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
NEWARK NJ 64 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TRENTON NJ 34 86 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
TRENTON NJ 50 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
TRENTON NJ 64 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BALTIMORE MD 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
DOVER DE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DOVER DE 50 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
DOVER DE 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
WASHINGTON DC 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
RICHMOND VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK NAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK NAS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK VA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK VA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: