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Hurricane IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       5      10      20      25      27
TROP DEPRESSION  4       7      22      27      28      30      28
TROPICAL STORM  65      77      61      55      46      41      41
HURRICANE       30      15      12       8       6       4       4
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       28      14       9       7       5       4       3
HUR CAT 2        2       2       2       X       1       1       X
HUR CAT 3        1       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   65KT    55KT    45KT    45KT    40KT    35KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   8( 8)   7(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   1( 1)  17(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   5( 5)  18(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X  11(11)  22(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X  30(30)  16(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X  53(53)  14(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X  11(11)  10(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
AUGUSTA ME     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  3  66(69)   5(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
PORTLAND ME    50  X  25(25)   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
PORTLAND ME    64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  5  82(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
CONCORD NH     50  X  41(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
CONCORD NH     64  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BOSTON MA      34 14  65(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
BOSTON MA      50  X  33(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
BOSTON MA      64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 17  40(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 20  30(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 33  48(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  1  36(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 48  44(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
HARTFORD CT    50  2  50(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 56  28(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
MONTAUK POINT  50  5  44(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34 87   6(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
NEW YORK CITY  50 47   7(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
NEW YORK CITY  64  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEWARK NJ      34 82   7(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
NEWARK NJ      50 30   8(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
NEWARK NJ      64  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TRENTON NJ     34 86   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
TRENTON NJ     50 22   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
TRENTON NJ     64  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ATLANTIC CITY  50 73   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
ATLANTIC CITY  64 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34 45   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
DOVER DE       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DOVER DE       50 35   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
DOVER DE       64  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34 70   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34 34   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
OCEAN CITY MD  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
OCEAN CITY MD  64 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
RICHMOND VA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NORFOLK NAS    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NORFOLK NAS    64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NORFOLK VA     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NORFOLK VA     64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:50 UTC