Hurricane IRENE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 6 11 23 29 30
TROP DEPRESSION 8 3 27 23 31 28 28
TROPICAL STORM 60 71 62 55 42 40 39
HURRICANE 31 26 5 12 4 4 4
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 29 23 5 10 4 4 3
HUR CAT 2 2 2 X 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
EASTPORT ME 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 6( 6) 28(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X 10(10) 43(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PORTLAND ME 34 X 23(23) 41(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
PORTLAND ME 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CONCORD NH 34 X 44(44) 31(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
CONCORD NH 50 X 7( 7) 22(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
CONCORD NH 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BOSTON MA 34 1 53(54) 18(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
BOSTON MA 50 X 10(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
BOSTON MA 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 2 42(44) 9(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
HYANNIS MA 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 34 2 37(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 3 63(66) 9(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 4 82(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
HARTFORD CT 50 X 42(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
HARTFORD CT 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MONTAUK POINT 34 6 72(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X 33(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEW YORK CITY 34 23 67(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
NEW YORK CITY 50 1 45(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
NEW YORK CITY 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEWARK NJ 34 19 67(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
NEWARK NJ 50 1 31(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
NEWARK NJ 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 31 49(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
TRENTON NJ 50 1 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
TRENTON NJ 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 61 29(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 11 33(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 26 7(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
DOVER DE 34 66 13(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
DOVER DE 50 10 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
DOVER DE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 37 4(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
WASHINGTON DC 34 25 4(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 67 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
RICHMOND VA 34 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK NAS 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
NORFOLK NAS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK VA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NORFOLK VA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
RALEIGH NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
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