Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
1500 UTC SAT AUG 27 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       4       4      10      25      30      31
TROP DEPRESSION  3      19       7      26      31      29      28
TROPICAL STORM  41      56      65      53      41      38      38
HURRICANE       56      21      24      12       3       4       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       52      18      21      10       3       3       3
HUR CAT 2        4       2       3       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        1       1       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    65KT    60KT    45KT    40KT    35KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)  16(16)   6(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)  12(12)  18(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)  22(22)  16(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)  41(41)  12(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   1( 1)  62(63)   7(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)  18(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
AUGUSTA ME     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   5( 5)  67(72)   2(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)  26(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
PORTLAND ME    64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   9( 9)  68(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)  37(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
CONCORD NH     64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X  18(18)  54(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)  29(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
BOSTON MA      64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X  19(19)  34(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X  20(20)  26(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X  30(30)  39(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   2( 2)  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  2  39(41)  34(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   6( 6)  29(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  4  42(46)  23(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X  11(11)  23(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34 10  59(69)   5(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X  30(30)   3(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
NEW YORK CITY  64  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  9  53(62)   5(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
NEWARK NJ      50  X  21(21)   2(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
NEWARK NJ      64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34 15  45(60)   2(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
TRENTON NJ     50  X  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
TRENTON NJ     64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34 44  38(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  1  42(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34 26   9(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
DOVER DE       34 54  20(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
DOVER DE       50  2  20(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
DOVER DE       64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34 35  10(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34 26   7(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34 83   9(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
OCEAN CITY MD  50 43  26(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  5   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
RICHMOND VA    34 57   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NORFOLK NAS    50 71   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
NORFOLK NAS    64  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NORFOLK VA     50 84   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
NORFOLK VA     64 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS  64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY  64 14   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:50 UTC