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Tropical Storm IRENE (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
1500 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       2      11      14      14      18
TROP DEPRESSION  2       5      12      31      25      10      10
TROPICAL STORM  86      58      65      50      50      45      46
HURRICANE       12      37      21       8      11      30      26
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       11      31      17       7      10      23      21
HUR CAT 2        1       4       3       1       1       5       4
HUR CAT 3        X       1       1       X       X       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    65KT    50KT    45KT    50KT    65KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  18(30)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  14(32)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  13(30)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  13(25)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  17(26)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  16(23)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  14(31)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   6(34)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  25(34)   4(38)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  12(29)   1(30)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   6(17)   1(18)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   7(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   3(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   3(19)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  12(25)   1(26)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  17(28)   2(30)   X(30)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   2( 2)  14(16)  12(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   4( 4)  13(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   9( 9)  40(49)   3(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  1  29(30)  32(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE          34 46  41(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
PONCE          50  2  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
PONCE          64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34 61  25(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
SAN JUAN       50  4  18(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
SAN JUAN       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 79   2(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
SAINT THOMAS   50  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 89   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
SAINT CROIX    50 18   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SAINT CROIX    64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 83   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BARBUDA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ANTIGUA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
AVES           34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:50 UTC