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Tropical Storm IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
0900 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       3       4      11      15      17
TROP DEPRESSION  3       6      10      10      21      14      11
TROPICAL STORM  90      67      43      54      56      49      47
HURRICANE        7      26      44      32      13      22      25
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      22      34      23      11      18      19
HUR CAT 2        1       3       8       7       1       3       4
HUR CAT 3        X       1       3       2       X       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    60KT    70KT    50KT    50KT    60KT    75KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   9(26)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   8(33)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   2(26)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   2(16)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   9(16)   3(19)   X(19)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   4(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   8(21)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)   3(28)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)   5(35)   1(36)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)  15(30)   1(31)   X(31)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  28(37)  10(47)   1(48)   X(48)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   1(16)   X(16)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  23(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   2( 2)  18(20)  26(46)   2(48)   X(48)   X(48)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   8( 8)  50(58)  12(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)  20(20)  10(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PONCE          34  2  73(75)   5(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
PONCE          50  X  22(22)   6(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
PONCE          64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JUAN       34  4  64(68)   3(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
SAN JUAN       50  X  11(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 22  47(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
SAINT THOMAS   50  1   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 38  48(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
SAINT CROIX    50  1  20(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 61   2(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 91   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BARBUDA        34 75   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
ANTIGUA        34 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
ANTIGUA        50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 90   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 
AVES           34  5   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:52 UTC