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Tropical Storm IRENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011               
2300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 2300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       3      12      16      16
TROP DEPRESSION  6       8      10      11      29      27      17
TROPICAL STORM  90      77      67      51      51      49      50
HURRICANE        5      14      22      36       8       8      17
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        4      12      19      26       7       7      15
HUR CAT 2        X       1       3       6       1       1       2
HUR CAT 3        X       1       1       3       X       X       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    50KT    55KT    65KT    45KT    45KT    55KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   1(14)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   2(17)   X(17)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   6(19)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   9(25)   1(26)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)   5(31)   X(31)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  27(38)   1(39)   1(40)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)  20(42)   X(42)   X(42)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   1(16)   X(16)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  16(30)   1(31)   X(31)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  29(37)  12(49)   X(49)   X(49)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PONCE          34  X   6( 6)  29(35)  11(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   6( 6)  24(30)   5(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X  13(13)  16(29)   2(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  1  23(24)  17(41)   1(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  1  17(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  4  29(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  5  15(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
ANTIGUA        34 10  23(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 31  26(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
GUADELOUPE     50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AVES           34  1  41(42)   3(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
AVES           50  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
DOMINICA       34 28  13(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
DOMINICA       50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARTINIQUE     34 11   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:49 UTC