Hurricane IRENE

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011
 
...HURRICANE IRENE DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 75.4W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
 
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THURSDAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.   A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.
 
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 952
MB...28.11 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE
FORCE BY THURSDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS. 
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY.  THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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