Hurricane IRENE

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
 
...IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS...FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG
HURRICANE...
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE
COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.  THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. 
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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