Hurricane IRENE

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HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1500 UTC THU AUG 25 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY.  THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  76.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  25SW  50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE  90SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  76.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N  76.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N  77.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  25SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N  77.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  25SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.4N  77.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  25SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.3N  77.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 125SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 37.8N  75.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 125SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 45.0N  71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 54.0N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N  76.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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