Tropical Storm EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1500 UTC THU AUG 04 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  72.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE   0SW  15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  72.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  71.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.6N  73.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N  77.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  72.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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