Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression EMILY


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS RATHER ELONGATED...DISPLACED
NORTHEAST OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.
 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. THIS
WOULD SEEM TO BE THE CASE PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
IN WHICH EMILY IS EMBEDDED BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONE'S
CURRENT ORGANIZATION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHIPS ANALYSES
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WHICH COULD BE A FACTOR.  UW CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES
ALSO INDICATE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE BECOMING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING WITHIN 36 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT EMILY COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER THAT
TIME BEFORE ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...
DISSIPATION IS NOW INDICATED SOONER.
 
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09.  UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT
EMILY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 26N68W.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST
HEADING DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR
EVEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 28.5N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 29.9N  75.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 31.7N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 33.4N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:46 UTC