Tropical Depression EMILY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA
FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER. 
ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERS
AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES.  AFTER 36
HOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID-
LATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY.  EMILY
IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA
THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.
 
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS
FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.  THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 26.9N  78.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 27.9N  77.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 29.9N  75.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 31.6N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 33.6N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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