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Tropical Depression BRET (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011
 
BRET REMAINS A MAVERICK TROPICAL CYCLONE BY REFUSING TO DISSIPATE
DESPITE EXPERIENCING VERY HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. PREVIOUSLY DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION...SOME
MODEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -45C HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IN ADDITION...SHIP WDC6925 LOCATED ABOUT 
80 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 24 KT AT
06Z. THIS INFORMATION...COMBINED WITH A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...IS JUSTIFICATION FOR MAINTAINING
BRET AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BRET HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
055/18. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SITUATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRET MOVING OVER
MUCH COLDER WATERS...WHICH WILL HASTEN ITS DEMISE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRET IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND PASS OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE THE WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ONE FINAL SHORT
BURST OF CONVECTION TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER. FOR THAT REASON...
BRET IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTERWARD...HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER
SSTS OF NEAR 22C BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION
BY 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 36.7N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 38.0N  63.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 39.4N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 40.9N  54.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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