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Tropical Storm BRET


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET THIS
MORNING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ON THE WANE.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL
DENSE OVERCAST.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY A
GENEROUS ESTIMATE.  BRET IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND IS ENTRAINING RATHER DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR.  THE
ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HOSTILE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 030/7.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BRET SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER ON.  THE FORECAST
SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...ASSUMING BRET SURVIVES THAT LONG. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 29.9N  75.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 30.6N  75.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 31.6N  73.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 32.9N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 34.3N  70.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 37.5N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:44 UTC