Tropical Storm BRET

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TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION FROM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON MADE ONE MORE PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF BRET AFTER THE
RELEASE OF THE 2100 UTC ADVISORY AND ESSENTIALLY FOUND LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE WINDS.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE INCREASED BY 1
MB ON EACH SUCCESSIVE PASS OF THE AIRCRAFT...AND THE INTENSITY OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  THE INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 50
KT.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL GIVES BRET THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME RE-STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THIS POSSIBILITY SHOULD THE DEEP
CONVECTION RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  MORE CERTAIN WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE...AND BRET IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAY 5.
 
BRET STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 030/6.  THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE SLOWER ON THIS MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS NOW 12 HOURS OLD
AND...ALONG WITH OFCI...FELL VERY NEAR THE EDGE OF THE GPCE CIRCLE
FAR FROM THE OTHER RELIABLE MODELS AT 72 HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS THEREFORE ON TRACK WITH BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 28.7N  76.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 29.5N  76.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 30.6N  75.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 31.7N  73.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 33.1N  71.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 36.0N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 39.0N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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