Tropical Storm BRET

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TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY IN
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.  THE MAIN BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND A
SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING CDO TYPE FEATURE IS EVIDENT.  UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS HELD AT 45 KT.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE BRET THIS AFTERNOON.  THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AS
MITIGATING FACTORS.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT AFTERWARDS INCREASING SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE
A WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

BASED ON THE LATEST FIXES...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 030/4.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BRET ALONG WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD CAUSE A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN
THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 27.7N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 28.2N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 29.2N  76.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 30.2N  75.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 31.4N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 33.5N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 36.0N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 38.5N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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