ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT IT HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR OR JUST EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SINCE GEORGETTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF THE CIRCULATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. PRIMARILY FOR THIS REASON...RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. GEORGETTE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOISTURE FROM GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 23.3N 109.9W 35 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 22/0600Z 25.1N 110.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.7N 111.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 30.3N 112.3W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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