ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010 GEORGETTE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS LOCATED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR BETWEEN 15-20 KT. WITHOUT ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS SINCE THE SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE GEORGETTE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 335/8. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND GEORGETTE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 22.5N 109.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 23.9N 110.7W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 22/1200Z 26.4N 111.7W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/0000Z 29.3N 112.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART NNNN
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