ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010 MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVED INLAND EAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO BETWEEN 0600-0700 UTC. PRIOR TO MOVING INLAND...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION... MEXICAN RADAR DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND A 0403 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A PARTIAL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. HOWEVER... DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE AT 1.5/25 KT AND 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB... RESPECTIVELY...AT 0600 UTC AND THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT WAS 2.4/34 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT NOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED INLAND. CENTER FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION...320/7...TO THE RIGHT AND SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION MOVING FARTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 16.4N 95.4W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 04/1800Z 17.2N 95.7W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:34 UTC