Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112010
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010
 
MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION MOVED INLAND EAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO BETWEEN
0600-0700 UTC. PRIOR TO MOVING INLAND...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...
MEXICAN RADAR DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND A 0403 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A
PARTIAL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THESE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. HOWEVER...
DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE AT 1.5/25 KT AND 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB AND
TAFB... RESPECTIVELY...AT 0600 UTC AND THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT
WAS 2.4/34 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT
30 KT NOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED INLAND.
 
CENTER FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION...320/7...TO THE RIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SHOWS
THE DEPRESSION MOVING FARTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 16.4N  95.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.2N  95.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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