ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010 THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A 1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE. THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS... STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE NNNN
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