Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010


THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH SOME
INDICATION OF INCREASED BANDING ORGANIZATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...AND 3.0...OR 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONALLY...TWO AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
USING THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE SUGGESTED WINDS JUST BELOW AND JUST ABOVE
35 KT.  WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL IS SEEN EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  WHILE WE DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT THIS IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...IT DOES
INDICATE THAT INTENSITY IS NOT AS HIGH AS WHAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUGGEST.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7
KT...THOUGH THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY
WHERE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS.  THE DEPRESSION IS
BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  BY 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
WEAKENED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH.  THE BREAK
IN THE RIDGE IS DEPICTED BY THE BAM DEEP MODEL AS RECURVING THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE PRIMARY MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREE.  INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ADVECT WESTWARD IN
THE TRADEWINDS AS IT SLOWLY DECAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE MAY NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL.  SSTS UNDER THE PATH OF THE
CYCLONE QUICKLY COOL TO BELOW 26C IN ABOUT A DAY...WHILE MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE
STATISTICAL MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...THOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
DO BRIEFLY CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL
STORM.  HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD ALLOW
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.0N 110.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.4N 111.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.6N 113.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W    25 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.0N 117.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 20.8N 121.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
 
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