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Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
800 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2010
 
A 0907 UTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE ON BOTH THE
37 AND 85 GHZ CHANNELS...THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
INCREASED TO 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 70-75 KT
RANGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...NEAR THE LOWER END OF
THE ESTIMATES...DUE TO THE ELONGATED CLOUD PATTERN. THE HURRICANE
REGIONAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT OR
GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCREASE IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE 26 DEGREE C SST ISOTHERM IN 36-48 HOURS AND A MORE STEADY
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
LGEM INTENSITY MODEL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THEREAFTER...A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS
OTHERWISE SIMILAR.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 17.4N 109.3W    75 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.8N 110.8W    75 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 112.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.9N 113.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.6N 113.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     31/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:34 UTC