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Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
200 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2010

CORRECTED FOR 120 HOUR FORECAST STATUS
 
A 0422 UTC METOP-A AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A CLOSED EYE-LIKE
FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE IS AT THE SURFACE.  THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS IN THE BD-CURVE INFRARED ENHANCEMENT THAT AN EYE
CURRENTLY EXISTS.  SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 75 KT AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT.  THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
COMMENCES.  FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...DUE TO COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A ROCK STEADY 285/12 KT.  FRANK
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE
OF THE CONTINUED RATHER LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 3...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 17.5N 108.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.9N 110.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 18.3N 111.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 18.9N 112.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 19.7N 113.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 114.3W    45 KT
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 22.0N 114.3W    30 KT
120HR VT     31/0600Z 23.0N 114.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:34 UTC