Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
800 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2010
 
THE BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT BRIEFLY APPEARED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED BENEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY.
THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN EYE AND HAS 
BEEN HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...BASED ON
A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM
UW/CIMSS.  THE SHEAR HAS OBVIOUSLY WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS FRANK REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER 36
HOURS...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12 KT.  FRANK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
IN 2-3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD AS
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS 
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTH OR
NORTHWESTWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER SOLUTION.
 
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON ASCAT DATA THAT
ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 17.2N 107.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N 109.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.1N 111.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N 112.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 19.1N 113.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.3N 114.3W    50 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 21.3N 114.3W    35 KT
120HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N 114.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:34 UTC