Hurricane FRANK

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HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
800 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2010
 
THE BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT BRIEFLY APPEARED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED BENEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY.
THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN EYE AND HAS 
BEEN HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...BASED ON
A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM
UW/CIMSS.  THE SHEAR HAS OBVIOUSLY WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS FRANK REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER 36
HOURS...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12 KT.  FRANK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
IN 2-3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD AS
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS 
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTH OR
NORTHWESTWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER SOLUTION.
 
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON ASCAT DATA THAT
ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 17.2N 107.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N 109.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.1N 111.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N 112.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 19.1N 113.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.3N 114.3W    50 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 21.3N 114.3W    35 KT
120HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N 114.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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