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Hurricane FRANK (Text)

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HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
200 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2010
 
THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF FRANK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO THE
BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE BECAME APPARENT. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT
18Z WERE 65 KT AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE
HAS ABOUT 36-48 HOURS LEFT OVER WARM WATER...AND WITH THE SHEAR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 48 HOURS...A
GRADUAL DECAY OVER COOLER WATERS IS EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH FRANK IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NOW...AT
285/11. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
FRANK SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF
THE U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT
DIRECTION. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS
4-5...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD AND
NORTHWARD MOTION...RESPECTIVELY...AND ARE POSSIBLY MAINTAINING TOO
COHERENT A VORTEX AT THOSE RANGES. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...SUGGEST THAT A RELATIVELY WEAK CYCLONE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 17.0N 106.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.4N 107.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.9N 109.7W    75 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 111.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 113.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 21.0N 114.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     30/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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