Hurricane FRANK

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HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
800 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2010
 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES FRANK HAS BECOME
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A VERY COLD CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -86C.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...ALTHOUGH DATA-T NUMBERS WERE A CONSENSUS T5.0/90 KT.
THEREFORE...FRANK IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.
 
FRANK REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. 
HURRICANE FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A STEADY
PACE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ERODE
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...
FRANK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY BEGIN
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

AN 0834 UTC AMSR MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED FRANK HAD A CLOSED LOW- 
AND MID-LEVEL EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FRANK DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO FORECASTING FRANK TO STRENGTHEN VERTICALLY AS
DEPICTED BY A 45-55 KT CYCLONIC 200 MB CIRCULATION BY 24 HOURS.
THIS FEATURE WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE...BUT
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS FRANK UP TO 76 KT. THE GFDL IS
ABOUT 10 KT HIGHER. BY 72 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
OVER MUCH COOLER WATER... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 16.6N 104.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N 106.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N 108.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.2N 109.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.8N 111.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 19.9N 113.2W    55 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N 113.8W    45 KT
120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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