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Tropical Storm FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010
 
THE CENTER OF FRANK HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...EARLIER AMSR-E AND AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES WERE VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER...WHICH IS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK DATA 
T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 OR 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. 

STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IS
EXPECTED TO GIVE FRANK AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN BEFORE. ALTHOUGH
THE 18Z GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE FRANK REACHING HURRICANE
INTENSITY VERY SOON...THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRONG SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL APPEARS MORE REASONABLE BY
STRENGTHENING FRANK AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST PREDICTS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AND BRINGS FRANK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS FRANK MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE UPDATED
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120
HOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  FRANK IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/8 KT.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRANK IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO
DECELERATE AS A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WEAKENS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 16.0N 102.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.4N 104.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.7N 107.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.3N 109.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 111.8W    60 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:34 UTC