Tropical Storm FRANK

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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010

THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR.  A RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND BANDING
FEATURES ARE ILL-DEFINED.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BASED ON
DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB...REMAIN AT 45 KT SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE
VERTICAL SHEAR TO RELAX A BIT IN A DAY OR TWO...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FRANK FROM
STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
JUST A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD MOTION...BUT
OTHERWISE THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  BY DAYS 4 TO
5...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH DIGS OVER CALIFORNIA AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. 
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS FRANK WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ALTHOUGH THESE
RAINS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK...THEY STILL POSE A
FLOOD THREAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 15.3N 100.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.7N 102.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 103.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 105.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N 107.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 110.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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