Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010

THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR.  A RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND BANDING
FEATURES ARE ILL-DEFINED.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BASED ON
DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB...REMAIN AT 45 KT SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE
VERTICAL SHEAR TO RELAX A BIT IN A DAY OR TWO...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FRANK FROM
STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
JUST A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD MOTION...BUT
OTHERWISE THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  BY DAYS 4 TO
5...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH DIGS OVER CALIFORNIA AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. 
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS FRANK WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ALTHOUGH THESE
RAINS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK...THEY STILL POSE A
FLOOD THREAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 15.3N 100.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.7N 102.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 103.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 105.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N 107.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 110.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:33 UTC