ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 200 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2010 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF FRANK. THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING A CDO-TYPE PATTERN WITH VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR OVER FRANK IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO OVER 20 KT AS AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION SO FRANK IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS ABOVE MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. BASED ON CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE MOTION CONTINUES JUST NORTH OF WEST AT NEAR 7 KT. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR FRANK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED BY DAYS 4 TO 5. THE GFDL/HWRF/ GFS MODELS TAKE FRANK QUITE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...WHEREAS THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST A TAD TO THE NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ONE. BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH ARE EXTENDED FARTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 14.3N 97.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 14.5N 98.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 15.0N 100.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 15.7N 101.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.4N 102.8W 70 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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