ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010 THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF FRANK HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE HAVE WEAKENED WHILE INCREASED BANDING IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. RECENT FIXES FROM CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT FRANK IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF FRANK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR AT LEAST A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DESPITE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS BRING FRANK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN TWO DAYS. THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS SHOW A LITTLE LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THEY DID BEFORE. THE UPDATED FORECAST REMAINS CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. GIVEN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.0N 96.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.2N 97.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 14.6N 99.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 15.7N 102.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 16.7N 104.6W 75 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 110.0W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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