ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010 THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN PULSING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT REMAIN RATHER SHAPELESS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO REMAIN 20 KT OR HIGHER OVER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY 36 HOURS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 3 DAYS. THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO FOLLOW ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 305/08. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY SUNDAY...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A SHALLOW FEATURE AND WILL TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 19.6N 109.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 20.1N 109.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 20.7N 112.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z 20.7N 113.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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