ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010 THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DO NOT SHOW THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFYING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT...AND BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 320 DEGREES...AT 6 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES SHALLOW...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 19.1N 107.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.8N 108.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.4N 110.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 20.7N 111.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 20.8N 112.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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