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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010
 
THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WHILE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DO NOT SHOW THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFYING...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CYCLONE COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT...AND BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 
GRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND
DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 320
DEGREES...AT 6 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES SHALLOW...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 19.1N 107.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 19.8N 108.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 20.4N 110.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 20.7N 111.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 20.8N 112.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:33 UTC