ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010 530 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0445 UTC SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS. THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... CONSISTENT WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR ANALYZED BY SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF TIME IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN...AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO SUB 27-C WATERS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE UNTIL IT REACHES THE COOLER WATER. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 320/6. THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND THAT TIME A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1230Z 18.7N 107.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 19.3N 108.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 109.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 111.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.6N 112.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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