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Tropical Depression ESTELLE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE DISSIPATED AROUND
01Z...BUT SOME MODEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -62C 
REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 05Z AND HAS PERSISTED
SINCE THEN. THAT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH TIGHT LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FEATURES/CLOUD LINES NOTED IN VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS...IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR KEEPING ESTELLE BARELY
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS SINCE 00Z INDICATE ESTELLE HAS MADE A
SLOW TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE NOW OF
235/02. AS ESTELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AND BECOME A MORE SHALLOW
CYCLONE...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD AS IT
GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ESTELLE REMAINS A
SEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
THE ONLY MODEL NOW THAT HAS ESTELLE BEING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF ESTELLE LEAVING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 12
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT...WHICH LEAVES
OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN
ESTELLE AS MUCH OR AS QUICKLY AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 17.4N 113.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.6N 113.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 16.2N 112.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 15.8N 111.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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