ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010 SPORADIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF ESTELLE. BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT. AS ESTELLE CONTINUES WESTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASED STABILITY AND STRONGER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALLS FOR ESTELLE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...WITH THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWING AN EVEN MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING. THE 12-HR MOTION IS 270/4 AND A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE EAST AND LOW-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 17.8N 111.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 17.9N 112.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 17.7N 114.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 13/0000Z 16.5N 113.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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