Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ESTELLE


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010
 
SPORADIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF
ESTELLE.  BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB...THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.  AS ESTELLE CONTINUES
WESTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
INCREASED STABILITY AND STRONGER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CALLS FOR ESTELLE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...WITH THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWING AN
EVEN MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING.
 
THE 12-HR MOTION IS 270/4 AND A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BEGINS TO
FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
EAST AND LOW-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 17.8N 111.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.9N 112.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 17.7N 114.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 113.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:32 UTC