ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010 CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO -82C AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CENTER HAS BEEN POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE COLDEST OVERSHOOTING TOPS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A 0248Z TRMM OVERPASS THAT REVEALED A COMPACT CYCLONE POSSESSING A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5/55 KT. ALTHOUGH BRIEF BURSTS OF CONVECTION IN SUCH SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN RESULT IN A QUICK SPIN-UP OF THE WIND FIELD...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND TRACK BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS AND TURN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...AND COULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ESTELLE COULD STILL REACH 60 KT INTENSITY. BY 24 HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 17.8N 110.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 17.9N 111.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 18.0N 112.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 18.0N 113.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 114.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 17.9N 115.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 12/0600Z 17.2N 115.2W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 13/0600Z 16.4N 114.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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