ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010 THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEALED SEVERAL CURVED BANDS AND A DEVELOPING CDO. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CYCLONE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND SO DOES THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN. ESTELLE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. ONCE ESTELLE WEAKENS AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION...BUT FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 17.2N 106.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 17.8N 107.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 18.3N 109.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 19.3N 112.2W 40 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 12/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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