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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 16 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...0512 UTC ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...AND
0605 UTC TRMM DATA SHOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS.  THIS
PATTERN WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES.  SINCE
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND NO LONGER
SATISFIES THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY.  AT THIS POINT...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY SINCE
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...JUST AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATERS
COLDER THAN 26.5C.  THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BURSTS OF CONVECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS. 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 300/9...BUT THIS IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  THE
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS...BUT THE MOTION COULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER ERRATIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 17.2N 109.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.8N 111.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.3N 113.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 18.6N 115.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 18.6N 117.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:31 UTC