ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010 800 PM PDT THU JUL 15 2010 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE WITHOUT INNER CORE FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW RAINBANDS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION AND A RECENT SMALL BURST NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY RELAXED A LITTLE...BASED ON HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS ON SATELLITE IMAGES. WHILE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY APPROACHING COOLER WATERS MAKING STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FORCING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD. ONCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 16.7N 109.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.3N 110.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 17.9N 112.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.2N 113.9W 25 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 18.4N 115.8W 25 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 119.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI NNNN
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