Tropical Storm DARBY

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010               
1500 UTC WED JUN 23 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       1       2       6      15
TROP DEPRESSION  3       3       4       3       6      13      18
TROPICAL STORM  92      69      53      45      51      46      47
HURRICANE        6      28      42      51      41      35      20
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        5      25      34      36      29      27      16
HUR CAT 2        1       3       6      10       9       6       3
HUR CAT 3        X       1       2       4       3       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    60KT    65KT    70KT    70KT    70KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   4(18)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   9(17)   4(21)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   9(15)   6(21)   4(25)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   7(16)   4(20)   2(22)
P MALDONADO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
P ANGEL        34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   2(14)
 
HUATULCO       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 
SALINA CRUZ    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
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