Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010
 
DARBY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SMALL SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING
FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE ARE HINTS OF AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE
HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER ON...STRONG
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER
CLOSELY.

THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW GRADUALLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 285/7.  SINCE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO WEAKEN...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO COLLAPSE IN A
FEW DAYS AND THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE.   ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW REJECTS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT DARBY WILL INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
SIMPLY MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A HALT BY DAY 4.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 12.9N  99.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.1N 100.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 101.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N 103.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 104.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:31 UTC