ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 800 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010 THERE HAS BEEN SOME MEAGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF BLAS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER. BY THE END OF THE DAY... BLAS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW DUE TO COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF BLAS IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS. BLAS REMAINS ON TRACK... NOW MOVING 270/11. A WEST OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION SEEMS PROBABLE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 18.0N 118.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 120.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 22/1200Z 17.8N 122.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 23/0000Z 17.4N 125.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 127.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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