ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010 SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN EXTENT AND IS DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM'S CENTER DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THE ENHANCED CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAY BE THE CYCLONE'S LAST GASP DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM AS THE SSTS ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY COLDER WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. BLAS IS PREDICTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTION DIES OFF TOMORROW MORNING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CURRENT MOTION IS 280/12...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF BLAS. WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND A CORRESPONDING BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY THEN. THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND HWRF MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.9N 116.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 18.1N 117.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 18.1N 119.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 121.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.5N 124.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:28 UTC