Tropical Storm BLAS

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TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010
 
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS CIRCULAR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5/35 KT
FROM SAB AND 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE CI-NUMBER FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB REMAIN AT 3.5/55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50
KT...CONSISTENT WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM TRMM...AMSR-E...AND AMSU CONFIRM THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. 

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT BLAS SHOULD
CONTINUE WEAKENING. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES STEADILY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND
BLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE. BLAS IS NOW
FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN 4 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD TAKE BLAS ON A GENERAL WESTWARD 
COURSE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
BEYOND THAT TIME...BLAS...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH OF DUE WEST INFLUENCED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 17.0N 111.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.2N 112.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.4N 114.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 116.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 16.5N 126.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N 130.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
 
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