ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS STILL WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LIMITED CONVECTION. SINCE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS. IN FACT...A RECENT ASCT PASS SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONLY 30 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. BLAS COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED SINCE IT SEEMS THAT STABLE AIR IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CYCLONE IS NEAR COOLER WATERS. NONE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION. BLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A PATTERN WHICH FAVORS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BECAUSE BLAS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...IT MOST LIKELY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.8N 106.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 107.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.3N 108.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 16.7N 109.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.0N 114.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 120.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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