ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF AGATHA CROSSED THE COAST EARLIER TODAY ABOUT 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE CYCLONE DEVELOPED A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT WAS MOVING INLAND. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF EL SALVADOR REPORTED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES ALONG THE COAST EARLIER TODAY WHILE DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN GUATEMALA REPORTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 15 INCHES. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS FROM THE SURROUNDING STATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. SINCE AGATHA IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO. AGATHA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY FAVORS A SLOW MOTION TOWARD NORTHEAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAKENING...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA... EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS. ALTHOUGH ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME...A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL OCCUR IN SQUALLS PRIMARILY OVER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 14.9N 92.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 15.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0000Z 16.0N 91.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI NNNN
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