ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THAT...COMBINED WITH 35-KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS...IS THE BASIS ON WHICH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AGATHA. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST- SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND ALSO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD LOW-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF...IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN...DUE TO THE SHARP EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE LOW-LATITUDE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE HWRF MODEL...A SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. SINCE AGATHA WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 30C AND WITHIN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING A NEAR 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFTENTIMES WEAKENS. DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN... THE MAIN IMPACT FROM AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS FAR INLAND AS HONDURAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 13.1N 93.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 13.4N 92.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 13.8N 91.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 14.3N 91.2W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1200Z 14.6N 91.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 91.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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